Today's poll shows the "Dream Team" is a nightmare

Well I worked hard to become the democratic candidate for governor.  But I did not have the money to challenge Sanchez, the would be governor of South Texas.

I was there for a year when Sanchez refused to attend any rank and file Democratic events.  

I was there for a year before the traitor Dan Morales stepped in at the last minute and hoodwinked about a third of the Democrats into voting for him and his stripper wife.  He quit the party in 1998, so why would anyone think he would not quit it again.  It is just a matter of time before he declares himself to be a Republican.

Nothing has changed since I got into the Democratic race for Governor in January 2001.  Texas is still racist.  The whites still vote in higher percentages.  The Hispanics are still not a cohesive voting block like the Blacks.  Not even a big money Patron like Sanchez could motivate them to register to vote much less vote for him.

It is still true that Blacks and Hispanics do not support each other at the polls.  

It is a sad day for all Texas Democrats.  Only John Sharp stands a chance of winning his race.  That was his plan all along.  He would be the chief beneficiary of the whatever Sanchez and Kirk could do to turn out the minority vote.  

But in the end, Sharp will lose as well.   Dewhurst has plenty of money and now that the Republicans have the Governor and Senate races won, they can devote more time to helping Dewhurst.

So who is left in the Democratic Party to win a statewide race?  No one is going to make the mistake of trying to run another Hispanic or Black for Governor or Senator.  Perry will have a lock on the governor's office unless he goes after Senator Kay's seat when that comes open.  Kirk may run for governor but I doubt it.  He has been sent a message that if you are going to act like a Republican, you need to be a Republican.  Right up to that part about being Black.

John Cornyn was a George Wallace man.  And now he is going to be a U S Senator.  And the Democrats thought that Ron Kirk had a chance.  They deluded themselves into believing that race was not a factor in Texas politics.

John WorldPeace
October 20,  2002

Poll: GOP has lead in top 2 races

DALLAS -- Republicans seeking the governor and U.S. Senate posts hold double-digit leads over their Democratic opponents, according to a new poll by the Dallas Morning News.

The Democrats' best hopes appears to rest on John Sharp, who is locked in a dead heat with Republican David Dewhurst in the lieutenant governor's race, said the paper's early Sunday editions.

Republican Gov. Rick Perry is favored by 50 percent of likely voters over Democrat Tony Sanchez, who was backed by 35 percent. In the Senate race to replace Phil Gramm, Republican John Cornyn leads Democrat Ron Kirk by 10 points -- 47 percent to 37 percent. Undecideds are at 14 percent in both races.

The poll, conducted Oct. 13-17 by Blum & Weprin Associates Inc. of New York, interviewed 953 likely voters by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Pollster Micheline Blum and colleague Julie Weprin said their survey suggests little evidence that the Democratic "Dream Team" ticket has sparked sufficient enthusiasm to offset lagging support among whites.

"That's obviously a real blow to Sanchez," Blum said. "He needs to be taking the overwhelming number of Hispanic votes. Plus he needs the enthusiasm of people getting out in droves to help him do well. And we don't see either one."

She said Kirk is doing far better among blacks than Hispanics.

"The problem is there isn't a black-Hispanic coalition," she said. "He's not getting anywhere near as much of the Hispanic vote as one might have expected or that he needs to get."

With three weeks to go, the GOP leads could dwindle as undecided voters -- especially minorities who probably would flow to the Sanchez and Kirk camps -- make a decision.

In the lieutenant governor's race, Sharp had 42 percent and Dewhurst 41 percent, the poll said, with 16 percent undecided.

In the attorney general's race, Republican Greg Abbott leads with 39 percent, and Democrat Kirk Watson 33 percent, said the poll, with 27 percent undecided.

But News poll indicates undecideds could trim double-digit advantages

10/20/2002

By WAYNE SLATER / The Dallas Morning News

AUSTIN – Republicans seeking the state's top offices hold double-digit leads over their Democratic opponents, but undecided voters still could narrow the gap with less than three weeks until Election Day.

Gov. Rick Perry is favored by 50 percent of likely voters over Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez, who's backed by 35 percent in the latest poll by The Dallas Morning News.

In the Senate race, Republican John Cornyn leads former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk by 10 percentage points.

The Democrats' best chance in the Nov. 5 election is former Comptroller John Sharp, who is in a dead heat with GOP Land Commissioner David Dewhurst.

The attorney general's race also is close, with Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Kirk Watson by 6 percentage points, but more than a quarter of likely voters are undecided.

"It's a good time to be a Republican running for office in Texas," pollster Micheline Blum said.

"What's happened in Texas is that almost half of all likely voters think of themselves now as Republicans," she said. "So you can't win anymore with just the Democrats and a chunk of the independents."

Part of the Democratic political blueprint is to boost turnout among minority voters with a historic ticket. Mr. Kirk would be the first black U.S. senator from the South since Reconstruction, and Mr. Sanchez would be Texas' first Hispanic governor.

Coupled with Mr. Sanchez's deep pockets – $54 million of his own money already spent – Democratic leaders hope to energize voters and get them to the polls in record numbers.

Dream strategy fizzles

Ms. Blum and colleague Julie Weprin said their survey suggests little evidence that the so-called dream team ticket has kindled sufficient enthusiasm to offset its lagging support among whites.

"That's obviously a real blow to Sanchez," Ms. Blum said. "He needs to be taking the overwhelming number of Hispanic votes. Plus he needs the enthusiasm of people getting out in droves to help him do well. And we don't see either one."

She said Mr. Kirk is doing far better among blacks than Hispanics.

"The problem is there isn't a black-Hispanic coalition," she said. "He's not getting anywhere near as much of the Hispanic vote as one might have expected or that he needs to get."

With just over two weeks to go, the GOP leads could dwindle as voters who say they're still undecided – especially minorities who probably would flow to the Sanchez and Kirk camps – make a decision.

For example, in the governor's race, 21 percent of black voters and 18 percent of Hispanics are undecided. By comparison, only one in 10 white voters has not picked a candidate.

If the undecided voters cast their ballots overwhelmingly for Democrats, the margins would narrow for Mr. Sanchez and Mr. Kirk. But there still wouldn't be enough votes to win without a record-breaking turnout among minorities, the pollsters said.

"Sanchez needs all the undecideds, plus at this point he needs to take a vote away from Perry," Ms. Weprin said. "Perry has his 50 percent."

Cornyn not unbeatable

As for the Senate matchup, the pollsters said the Cornyn lead is sizable but not insurmountable for Mr. Kirk. Still, they said, "Mr. Cornyn gets 81 percent of those who said they were Republicans – and he doesn't need much else."

The poll, conducted Sunday through Thursday by Blum & Weprin Associates of New York, interviewed 953 likely voters by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the total for each candidate could vary that much in either direction.

The candidates offered predictably different views of the results, with Republicans casting them as consistent with their polling and Democrats dismissing them as flawed.

"This poll, like most public polls, is wrong," Sanchez spokesman Mark Sanders said. He said pollsters are under-representing minorities and voter enthusiasm.

"We show this a very, very, very close race," he said.

Ray Sullivan, a Perry spokesman, said the survey mirrors "virtually every independent public poll and is a strong endorsement of Gov. Perry's leadership record."

Cornyn spokesman Dave Beckwith said he's not surprised his candidate is ahead, and he predicted the lead would grow.

Kirk spokesman Justin Lonon said, "There will be a lot of polls between now and Election Day. This will be a close, competitive race, and we look forward to being successful on Election Day."

Among the poll's findings:

• Voters are divided over which gubernatorial candidate is better equipped to rein in soaring insurance rates, a cornerstone of the Sanchez campaign. Of likely voters, 37 percent say Mr. Perry would do a better job; 33 percent pick Mr. Sanchez.

• Although Mr. Cornyn, the state attorney general, has touted his support of President Bush, 51 percent of voters say it would not be a factor in their decision.

• In a contest marked by millions of dollars of attack ads on television, voters say Mr. Sanchez is running a more negative campaign. According to the survey, 37 percent said Mr. Sanchez was the nastiest; 26 percent said Mr. Perry was; and 22 percent said they were equally negative.

• Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Kirk have maintained relatively high positive ratings among voters, but Mr. Perry's approval rating has fallen over the last seven months of the acrimonious campaign. About 57 percent give Mr. Perry a favorable rating compared with 36 percent for Mr. Sanchez.

"Sanchez has got a big problem," Ms. Blum said. "It's so partisan. While Democrats and independents think more favorably of Sanchez, he gets a 17 percent favorable among Republicans."

'Razor-thin' margins

The contest for lieutenant governor is so close that either candidate could win, the pollsters said.

"It's razor-thin," Ms. Blum said. "Sharp does well among many more groups than the other Democrats running in any of the other contests."

Even among Republicans, Mr. Sharp gets a relatively high one-fifth of the vote.

"If Sanchez can pull out more Hispanic votes, it helps Sharp more than anybody," she said.

"If there's a big Hispanic turnout, it might not put Sanchez over the top, but it could put Sharp over."

Sharp spokesman Kelly Fero said the campaign's polling shows the Democrat with a lead of 5 or 6 percentage points over Mr. Dewhurst.

But Nick Voinis of the Dewhurst campaign predicted victory, saying, "The only poll that really matters is on Nov. 5."

The race for attorney general between Mr. Abbott, a former Supreme Court justice, and Mr. Watson, a former Austin mayor, has the most undecided voters.

The pollster said that because of the lack of familiarity with these office-seekers, party identification is the key factor, with independents split and up for grabs.

Staff writer George Kuempel contributed to this report.

E-mail wslater@dallasnews .com

THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS POLL
Likely voters' picks if the election were today for:
Senate
Republican John Cornyn	47%
Democrat Ron Kirk	37%
Undecided	14%
Governor
Republican Rick Perry	50%
Democrat Tony Sanchez	35%
Undecided	14%
SOURCE: Telephone poll Sunday-Thursday of 953 likely voters. Results do not equal 100 percent because of rounding. Margin of error: plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the totals for each candidate can vary that much in either direction.

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