Texas Polls: "No way Jose"

Well, when all the hoopla and "rah rah" is over on Tuesday, the bottom line will still comes down to the fact that come November, Perry is going to win if Sancheese or Immorales is the Democratic nominee for Governor.

THE POLLS (see below)

Today, March 10th, the numbers are 2 to 1 for Perry against Sanchez or Morales.
[No numbers for WorldPeace because he continued to gain on Perry]
In December 2001, it was 48% for Perry and 18% for Sanchez.
[No numbers on WorldPeace because he continued to gain on Perry]
In September 2001, it was 53% for Perry and 23% for Sanchez.
[ 53% for Perry and 17% for WorldPeace]
Last May 2001, it was 55% for Perry and 17% for Sanchez.
[56% for Perry and 13% for WorldPeace]

After 15 months as the anointed one of the Democratic Party bosses, Sanchez has made NO ground against Rick Perry. SANCHEZ CAN'T BEAT PERRY.

REALITY

There are no Hispanic or Black governors or United States Senators in America. And there will not be a Hispanic governor elect in Texas after November 5, 2002.

THE HISPANIC JOKE

THE MAIN PLOT

Here is the Ben Barnes' deal (and I have been saying this for over a year). Get a Hispanic to run for governor in the Democratic Party. He brings out the Hispanic vote and those extra voters shift the down ballot White Democratic races in the November general election. The Judas Goat (Sanchez) has no chance of winning but the down ballot White Democratic candidates pick up enough votes to beat their Republican opponents. (Forget about WorldPeace who is actually committed to doing something for the Hispanics)

There is more. You recruit a corrupt Hispanic Republican (A Bush "Pioneer") who can spend $30 million bucks. The corrupt Hispanic (Sanchez) is given a deal for playing the Judas Goat. He spends the $30 million and wins the nomination. 

The media is in on the deal. Their payoff is the $30 million in advertising. 

George Bush wins because Sanchez cannot beat Perry in November (as is verified by the polls) and the state stays Republican. 

For playing the Judas Goat, Sanchez gets to drill in all the state parks and the state banking commission looks the other way while Sanchez becomes a major conduit for laundering drug money. (Remember he has a history of this. And don't forget his buddy Tony Canales, Tesoro counsel, and drug lord defender. And don't forget Tony's Mafia connection to the MAFIA's Carlos Marcelo through the late Morris Jaffe.) $30 million is a drop in the bucket compared to the BILLIONS that Tony is going to be stealing.

THE SUB PLOT

The corrupt little Sancheese was screwing up the plot because he refused to do any politicking in 2001. So Ben Barnes called on Dan Morales to join the governor's race at the last minute. (Two days before Morales filed, Barnes tipped his hand with an interview with Peggy Fikac of the San Antonio Express about who could raise taxes to deal with the alleged coming budget shortfall; that who being Morales.)

Morales is under an ongoing federal investigation for his attempted theft of $250 million of the tobacco settlement money. Morales was told by Barnes (who represented someone who could make it happen) that if he got in the race and made Tony get off his Democratic? ass and run (so the fix would not be so obvious) the federal investigation would go away.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT: WORLDPEACE

All was going well with the plot. Marty Akins was bought out of the governor's race in September 2001 which left Tony as the only real? candidate. 

But there was WorldPeace, a nobody, who jumped into the race on January 1, 2001. WorldPeace was discounted and ignored by the Party bosses and the media but he refused to go away. He started to gain in the polls. He started to become a growing presence in the race.

So the press conspired to discount his candidacy. They had to in order to make sure they got their share of the $30 million. But WorldPeace never quit running. Never quit writing epistles. Never quit shouting and screaming and yelling the truth from his web page forum.

Then after the other Hispanic got in the race, the Hispanic only debates were conceived. And the media tried to leave the impression that since they did not invite WorldPeace, he was a fringe candidate. WorldPeace filed suit to stop the debates but the conspirators hired Vinson and Elkins to do their dirty work in the courts by playing marginal lawyer games and removing WorldPeace's lawsuit from the state courts to a more favorable Federal court. WorldPeace was kept out of the statewide debate.

But the debates backfired. There was a Black and White and to some degree Hispanic backlash. Especially against the Spanish debates.

THE POLLSTERS

Below there is an excellent article about the current polls by Carlos Guerra of the San Antonio Express. The pollsters have been bought off.

In a nutshell, the pollsters called people who had voted in the last two Democratic Primaries. They probably called people with Hispanic surnames as well. The numbers were skewed toward Sanchez and Morales. More so toward Sanchez because those polled were more likely to hold the Party line and Sanchez was the Party bosses' boy.

But the polls could not hide the fact that even 41% of those "yellow dogs" who were polled are undecided. The inference is that the indecision is between Morales and Sanchez. But the indecision is between WorldPeace and the corrupt Hispanics.

And what is more, if the hard core yellow dogs were polled and they are 41% undecided, I would say that there are more undecided among the rank and file or what is more likely, the rank and file are about to hand WorldPeace a resounding victory.

THE CONSPIRACY

Sanchez has literally bought off many of the Party Bosses with cash and trucks and things. How else do you get Black leaders to endorse a corrupt Hispanic who comes from a city that until WorldPeace made an issue of it flew the Confederate Battle Flag (as opposed to the Confederate Flag) at the Laredo International Airport and where only 100 non-Hispanic Blacks live in a population of 200,000. Laredo the Vidor of the South.

How else do you get the union to endorse Sanchez who I understand uses Chinese "overtime" in his International Banc of Commerce. (Chinese overtime is where the more you work, the less you get per hour.)

Every single Democratic leader who endorsed Sanchez was bought. How else do you get Democrats to endorse a Republican?

The press was bought with advertising. The Texas Monthly king pins have known and worked with Tony all the way back to their intern days with the crooked Ben Barnes in the sixties.

THE STINK TO HIGH HEAVEN

The "Tony Sanchez Dog and Pony Show" is about to be tested. The future of the Democratic Party is at stake. The future of hundreds of corrupt Party Bosses and elected officials and lesser known players is on the line.

They have tried to float a Hispanic turd (The police slang for a criminal). Tuesday will determine if the turd will become king or if every one of his lackeys and minions are going to stink to high heaven when the turd explodes.

* * * * * * * * 

"When you sow the wind, you reap the whirlwind"

"I will stand my post, I will take up my position on the watchtower" 
HABAKKUK

In the end, WorldPeace

John WorldPeace
The next governor of Texas
No more corruption. No more Monicas.
God Bless Texas 

March 10, 2002
___________________________________________

March 10, 2002, 12:18AM

Sanchez leading in final stretch 
Morales trailing 2-1, poll shows 
By JOHN WILLIAMS 
Copyright 2002 2002Houston Chronicle 

Tony Sanchez has gotten good mileage from an $18 million campaign and holds almost a 2-1 lead over Dan Morales on the eve of the Democratic primary for Texas governor, according to a Houston Chronicle / KHOU-TV poll. 

But...a Texas Poll released Saturday showed that if the election were held now, Perry would swamp either Democrat by more than a 2-1 margin. That poll of 1,000 adult Texans was conducted Feb. 11-March 4 by Scripps Data Center. 

__________________________________________________

Dec. 8, 2001, 12:49AM

Poll: Victory in governor's race seems likely for Perry 
Leads opponent now, but could be vulnerable later 
By R.G. RATCLIFFE 
Copyright 2001 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau 

AUSTIN -- A new Texas poll shows Republican Gov. Rick Perry is well positioned to win election next year, but could be vulnerable to a Democratic attack. 

...When matched up against his likely Democratic opponent -- Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez -- Perry holds a 48 percent to 18 percent lead. 
_________________________________________

Sept. 4, 2001, 11:05PM

Democrat Sanchez starts bid for governor's office 
By R.G. RATCLIFFE 
Copyright 2001 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau 

AUSTIN -- Laredo millionaire Tony Sanchez launched his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination Tuesday... 

...But a new Texas Poll shows Sanchez's early advantage in the Democratic primary race comes mostly from Hispanic voters. 

And in a general election matchup with Republican Gov. Rick Perry, Sanchez's support among Hispanics is soft and shows little to forecast a victory for the Democrat. 

...In the general election, Perry would be the easy winner if it were held today, according to the Texas Poll. 

Perry would defeat Sanchez 53 percent to 23 percent; Akins 52 percent to 19 percent; and WorldPeace 53 percent to 17 percent. 

While Sanchez got support from 41 percent of the Hispanics surveyed, Perry got the support of 37 percent. 
______________________________________

Perry would win easily if vote for governor was today, poll says

Date May 9, 2001 
Source Jack Douglas Jr.Star-Telegram Staff Writer 
Section METRO 
Edition FINAL 

If the race for Texas governor was held today, the Republican incumbent would win hands down, according to a new political poll. 

That is the good news for Gov. Rick Perry.

...Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez, who is considering joining the race as a Democrat, fared slightly better, with 17 percent of the respondents saying they would vote for him, to 55 percent for Perry, if they went head-to-head. Twenty-six percent were undecided or could not answer.

The poll, sponsored by the Scripps Howard Data Center, surveyed 1,000 adults between April 10 and May 1. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Another announced Democratic candidate for governor, Houston attorney John WorldPeace, received the nod from 13 percent of the people polled, with 56 percent saying they would pick Perry in a two-candidate race.
__________________________________

Metro and State 
Carlos Guerra: Democrats wise to be wary about results of pre-election polls 

San Antonio Express-News 

Web Posted : 03/10/2002 12:00 AM 

If Democrats seem giddy, it's because they don't know how to act now that they suddenly have viable candidates in the races for U.S. Senate and governor.

What's more, the supercharged governor's race is boosting turnout in key areas such as South and West Texas and drawing attention to pre-election polls. 

As of Saturday, Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez was leading former Attorney General Dan Morales for governor in the three latest surveys, two with a large number of undecided respondents.

And in the U.S. Senate race, the polls showed former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, U.S. Rep. Ken Bentsen and Crandall geography teacher Victor Morales in a virtual three-way tie. 

But while these surveys reach similar conclusions, their numbers vary widely in the governor's race and disagree on which Senate hopeful is likely to be left out of a runoff. 

In KSAT's SurveyUSA, Sanchez led Morales 45-37 percent, with the rest undecided. The Texas Poll, conducted for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, had Sanchez ahead 31-23 percent, with 41 percent undecided. The Dallas Morning News' Weprin poll had Sanchez leading Morales, 44-30 percent, with 24 percent undecided.

Harvey Kronberg of Quorum Report reported that today's Houston Chronicle poll will show Sanchez ahead of Morales 34-19 percent. 

If you're wondering how the percentages, especially of the "undecideds," could vary so widely, check their findings in the Senate race.

SurveyUSA gives Bentsen 39 percent, Kirk and Morales 24 percent each; 13 percent were undecided. The Texas Poll pegs Bentsen at 17 percent to Morales' 16 percent and Kirk's 13 percent, with 44 percent undecided. The Morning News poll gives Morales 24 percent, Kirk 19 percent and Bentsen 18 percent, with 29 percent undecided.

To understand such wide variances, one must first understand how polls work. In theory, a sample of people drawn randomly from a larger group will echo the larger group's feelings. So, by interviewing 400 to 1,000 randomly chosen folks, you'll know how the population feels. 

But the sample must be truly representative, and large enough to ensure statistical validity of what is concluded, which gets tricky.

And since opinions change, if interviews are conducted over too long a period, or too long before an election, a poll's alleged "predictability" may be suspect. 

To illustrate these points, Kronberg observed that of 1,000 people that Texas Poll called, only 241 said they would vote in the Democrat's primary, raising questions about the validity of conclusions about this primary's vote. 

And unlike most polls that do their interviews in three days, he noted, the Texas Poll interviewed from Feb. 11 through March 4, so "the folks interviewed at the beginning of the poll missed the gubernatorial debate, the Spanish-language controversy, $4 million of Sanchez's paid media (and) Morales' control of the nightly news."

But for pollsters, this primary is eerily unpredictable for a bigger reason: Large numbers of "nontraditional voters" are casting ballots, and most surveys only question varying degrees of "likely voters," so these new voters' behavior might remain unknown until the votes are counted. 

So if you haven't voted yet, don't assume the races have been decided and you can skip voting Tuesday to go fishing.

The only truly accurate poll will be conducted Tuesday. Besides, the weather will be terrible for fishing.

To leave a message for Carlos Guerra, call (210) 250-3545 or e-mail cguerra@express-news.net. His column appears Sundays, Tuesdays and Thursdays.

03/10/2002